2025 bull market, double down?
Market Report #230
Hi everyone it’s been a while, 226 days to be exact, defiantly the longest break I have had between writing content and probably a well needed break, I have been super busy with personal stuff and just found a lack of passion for writing content to be completely honest, not sure why but likely just due to being so solely focused on crypto for the past 6 years.
I hope everyone has had a successful year, I would honestly love to read your comments on how you managed 2024, the highs and lows, and what are your expectations for 2025, will make sure to respond to all comments :)
Newsletters are back, I will be writing weekly thoughts on the market for you this year, so lets kick things off and get 2025 off to a start.
Well here we are, 2025 and im sure majority of people will agree that the past year has been overall a hugely beneficial year for portfolio growth, but in a way that is different to what we would have seen in previous cycles. Sure, ETH underperformed, and the L1’s and ecosystem meta we have always previously seen has defiantly not been as exciting, maybe probably more disappointing if anything. Last year for me personally I found pretty boring, i didn’t really enjoy the whole meme and pumpfun meta, i actually faded nearly everything, as 1) just didnt have the time or patience and 2) just really thought it was a massive gamble and not something that resonated with me as someone who prefers value investing and a longterm approach.
That said, we had good gains from the 2023 lows, and almost everything was green which is always positive, I found I focused more on AI and trying to find value in that niche section of the market, I think it has way more growth potential for mid/long-term holds and AI likely outperforms all other sectors, from here moving forward.
Next week I will be doing a full writeup and positions and what I am currently allocating to at the moment, discussing my portfolio going into this new year, but today will just cover my broader market thoughts for BTC and ETH / macro.
ETH has had a pretty rough year compared to Solana, this obviously being due to other L1’s such as solana being way more user friendly and developers heavily building into those networks, so similar to what we saw with ETH during the NFT meta, now we are seeing way more adoption for solana and base for example with memecoins as its just way more cost-effective and efficient that using Ethereum.
That said, I am still holding and didn’t rotate out of my position, I am currently just sitting and waiting for strength, the chart still looks fine, and we are holding up relatively well considering the lack of volume and increased sell pressure over the christmas and new year. I think ETH on a macro level is just in this accumulation pattern, we visited the highs of 4.1 now 3 times this year without moving higher, and now with price finding higher lows and gradually grinding into this resistance, I am expecting 2025 to be a breakout year and for new ATH’s to be achieved.
Actually looking at this chart above, I think we have a substantial growth year.
Bitcoin has had a great year, reaching a high of 108k on majority of exchanges and proving that it can trade above 100k for the first time since its creation, it actually held up incredibly and traded nicely above 100k without any major massive sell-off like we saw in the previous cycle in the 60’s, BTC has real buyers here in this 90/100k region, that shows the strength of the market.
This is not something we usually see when a top is forming, we usually have a rush to the door mentality where everyone is exiting at a similar price, now with US regulation likely about to get way more friendly to BTC and crypto, and lots of interest from traditional avenues such as hedges funds, BTC is not topping here.
The chart above I have marked out some key levels, just incase we do see a breakdown in structure, we currently hold support at 91k relatively well, but the chart looks crazy good still even though it seems like CT has been panicking for the past 2/3 weeks, BTC hasn’t even started to see a pullback yet, which is guess could be worrying depending on how you wanted to look at it. Christmas and new years are slow, always with volume and people being away from their desk, both due to tax reasons (needing to exit positions) and also just investors being away for the holidays and logging off.
I think that 2025 will likely have a good Q1, even though the start of the year has been pretty rough, alts, AI and especially meme’s have seen some crushing pullbacks the past 2 weeks, most of the major meme’s are down 50/60%+ and its been pretty brutal, but I guess thats the risk you take when investing in projects that depend attention and hype non-stop to keep moving higher, imagine what happens to these type of projects once this cycle does come to close, it is going to be brutal.
The remainder of the year still has massive opportunity to be very bullish for both crypto and traditional markets, we will have the inauguration of trump very soon and as we discussed above this likely going to be a bullish turning point not just for this year but generally for the adoption and integration of blockchain into the US. We also still have no seen an ATH for the majority of the market, this including the wider total marketcap of the crypto space which still has not even broke previous ATH’s
So many catalysts for the market to grow, BTC hit 108k, and still crypto has not seen a new total marketcap, which is i think crazy, i think this year we see a large breakout and my predictions are that we see crypto trade between 5-7 trillion dollars.
I have adding to my positions down here, and already have been for the past week, I have been rotating a small amount of BTC into more higher risk plays, but I will do a full portfolio breakdown next week including charts.
Thank you to everyone for reading, see you next week for another newsletter, if you did enjoy this newsletter please subscribe and give it a share, I write these newsletter for free just to share my thoughts and opinions on what is happening in the market.