Hi traders, welcome back to another newsletter, I was hoping this was going to be another bullish flash-in-the-pan newsletter, looking at higher prices and praising the current PA over the past week for maintaining some key levels of support, actually, I already wrote about half of this newsletter over the past day but now it seems everything has changed in terms of both TA and fundamentals over the past few hours, with the news breaking about the world’s largest centralized digital asset exchange, Binance being hit with a lawsuit from Commodity Futures Trading Commission, things might not be looking so hot, let’s take a look at the market.
So firstly before jumping into the news about Binance and a more macro-focused look at the markets, I first want to take a look at BTC and ETH over the past week.
BTC has ran, and ran well over the past few weeks and especially over the past 10 days, and is now testing this first real major block of resistance that price action has on a high timeframe, for me this is the region that really determines how PA is going to move over the coming few weeks and months, we really do want to see this level get flipped into support for a substational bull run this year. Otherwise we could very easily just stop here, call is a bear market ralley and slump back into sideways PA and starting to see bears take back some control and gain momentum.
I think generally speaking, BTC price action right now is in this range from 25.5k to 27.5k without any clear signs of direction, seems as though we are going to slump back down closer towards the range lows, likely find some level of support and then the major move is waiting for a break in either direction. For now, I see no reason to be worried about extended downside moves, it does seems as though the market contiues to have bullish momentum, and even a short pullback of 5/10% will only settle price down to another higher low launchpad if the macro remains neutral.
Right now, it seems like we have a more pressing and urgent matter than will likely unfold over the coming few days, weeks and likely months. Just a few hours ago, the news has become public about how Binance is being sued by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, this is a hefty headline to swallow to swollow and consdering the size of the lawsuits, this is going to take a long time to digest, and breakdown just how serious and badly the implications may ripple through the space.
Allegations that employees encouraged KYC evasion. Prop trading allegations. The claim that the chief compliance officer said "small sums" from sanctioned regions were okay, there is a really heavy amount of information that could see Binance having a lot of issues in the neartime. Apparently Chief Compliance Officer Samuel Lim was quoted saying “On the surface we cannot be seen to have US users but in reality we should get them through other creative means,”, showing that Binance has been trying to target US users in more creative and evasive ways to signup and use the platform without directly heading to Binance.com for a IP address in the US.
Obviously I am no legal expert, I am not going to pretend to break down this suit and get to a conclussion on how this can have an impact on Binance, BNB, BTC and just the space as aMark whole, but this is something we are going to have to keep on eye on, and obviously this is not the best time to start adding to leverage longs and increasing exposure, actually personally taking the opposite approach and scaling back on aggressive spot positions and altcoins. Nobody really knows right now what will unfold, the best advice I can give is to prepare for the worst case, BTC tanking and dipping back down to around 23k region, and how altcoins will also be pulled deeper. This hopefully will give us a good buying opportunity and be a light on the horizon that likely a lot of sidelined investors have been waiting to happen.
ARB is a buy between $1/1.2 for me, starting to add a HTF position slowly this coming week and super happy that BTC has started to pull back a little bit on this Binance news, just so that I can really start to get a good price for a longterm play. I think that if the market keeps sliding then we will get the chance at buying around $1 or maybe even sub, currently at the time of writing this newsletter the price of ARB is $1.13, so we are nearly close to my first target region, will watch it throughout the night.
generally speaking I think the majority of dips in the crypto space are going to be good buys once the macro conditions get better, I still really want to be mega long going into 2024, so this year is still going to be a very important one. Scaling out now a little and de-risking is a LTF trade for me, I want to be back in ETH if we can get down to around 1.4k region, adding BTC at 24k and just generally picking up some other chains and projects along the way. We only have around one year until the next halving for Bitcoin, and this is likely just going to result in an other cataylst and with ETH tokenomics becoming so inflationary now, 2024 is going to be a very bullish year in my opinion, even if the market is weak and we see macro conditions be stagnant.
I also wanted to discuss a little bit on Radix Network, a position that I have been building up in my personal portfolio probably since late last year, for those who are not aware Radix is ran on the XRD token and growth has been outstanding the past few months, continuing to push the network further and expand the ecosystem.
The tough market conditions are are tricky time for most projects, radix has used this oppoortunity to really push expansion, “boasting a dynamic dev community of 8.5k+ members & a whopping $26 million in transaction volume across 92.2k active accounts”, all before smart contracts have even launched. The developer, account and transcation growth is pushing more than ever, all while funding and building a cohort of new excited projects that will all launch inside of the ecosystem very shorlty.
This is another ecosystem play that I am going to be accumulating going into 2024, I think what they are showing throughout this bear market is pure strength and determination, and personally I have very high convicitionthat this project will succedd and make it out the other side with very good results. I also think the token price is highly undervalued for what they are delvering, down nearly -91% since the ATH’s compared to a network that is only showing strength after strength.
Thank you for reading this Newsletter; if you did enjoy it and would like to stay up to date with any of my technical analysis moving forward, please do subscribe. I am currently trying to write something on the markets at least once a week.
Thanks for always taking the time to read, I appreciate the support, and writing this newsletter is always the highlight of my week.