Bitcoin breaks 511 day bear market structure? iShares Spot ETF is coming fast

Market Report #222

October 23rd 2023 is going to be a very interesting day for most followers on BTC and the crypto markets, last night we had some very exciting news for Bitcoin and the potential spot ETF that could be on the horizon. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin trust got submitted and listed into the depository trust & clearing corporation with the official ticker marked down as $IBTC, bringing the ETF one step closer in reality.

Bitcoin has soared overnight around 14% and it up around 22% over the past few days alone, first we had the coindesk intern teasing the market with ETF based approval tweets and now this validation that a spot ETF is likely going to be coming very soon to the US has sent a the market into a frenzy of buying and fomo.

Blackrock also has stated into their prospectus that they aim to seed the fund in October, which is between NOW and a week from now, so things are starting to point towards a much fast timeline than we originally expected. Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Eric Balchunas recently shared that IBTC is a groundbreaking spot bitcoin ETF that is poised to be listed on DTCC. DTCC being a big player in the financial markets, processing trillions of dollars in securities transactions on a daily basis. In particular, one of DTCC’s subsidiaries, the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC), offers a streamlined process for clearing ETFs.

Looking at the chart above, you can see just how strong this current candle is looking for BTC on the daily and weekly basis, while I currently see no reason for bears to get back momentum in the near-term and bulls have full control over this narrative, it is very likely that BTC does not see a pullback BUT BTC is currently at a level of resistance that will be important to close above on a weekly basis.

If we can close the weekly above 35k then we likely no pullback is happening for now and the market will continue to rise higher and I think it would be safe to say the macro structure would be considered highly bullish, bull market structure returned.

That said, if we get a weekly close below 34k then likely BTC falls back into the low 30’s which has been resistance over the past 511 days, this is the perfect level to fall back and show strength from buyers, personally for me I am expediting my DCA process, in the previous newsletter we talked about buying in the second half of 2023 but likely with a spot ETF just around the corner, any type dip I will start to buy back.

ETH to USD actually is underperforming right now, and while seeing some traction today gaining around +10%, compared to where BTC is trading at the moment, to find some equilibrium between price, Ethereum likely needs to be trading in the low $2000’s, so I am expecting ETH to play catchup over the coming few days if BTC remains this high. We should technically also see ETH perform similarly in structure with this 450 day bear market resistance at $2100 being broken to the upside.

SOL has been a big runner aswell recently, we are currently testing this 31.66 level that was tested back in summer, but this time it seems bulls have full control to take price even higher and this is not looking like a quick wick. Similar to BTC and ETH, I would say apart from a wick in summer, the price of Solana has been under 26 resistance for around 400 days, and this is the first significant break above and flip we have seen, $26 would be the new support level here to add to packs and buy the dip.

The good news is that once we break $32 for Solana, the next major resistance level is going to be at $40 then $50, which makes price push aggressively higher, lots of people over the past year have faded SOL pretty heavily, but sub $18 seems unlikely again in the future due to the amount of buying pressure on the general crypto markets.

A summary of my thoughts on the market right now are that a spot ETF is going to be approved for Bitcoin sometime soon, I thought actually this would happen in month 2/3 of next year, but it seems things are progressing fast than I originally anticipated, while I have still a good % of spot positions in the current market, I likely need to now increased my risk tolerance if we get a strong BTC close on the weekly.

It seems that chances of the macro structure being shifted from bearish into bullish are high right now, and while we still need to wait for this weekly candle structure, even if we do see some type of pullback I would likely have higher conviction thinking that the bull market is just around the corner and it is going to be hard to find some bears to keep price suppressed much lower.

It is time to wake up, bears need to realise the macro tides are fastly shifting.