BITCOIN MAKES A NEW ALL TIME HIGH

Market Report #228

Hi everyone, welcome back to another newsletter, another crazy week in the crypto markets, I was going to get this newsletter out on friday but I was waiting to see the weekend price action as the past week has been eventful to say the least.

Bitcoin has of course hit a brand new all time high, finally! so congratulations to everyone who has stuck around over these past few years, kept consistent with their thesis and believes in what value BTC brings to the world. Currently at the time of writing this newsletter Bitcoin is sitting at around $72,200 dollars which is great, and price now seems to be stabilizing above the previous ATH which is excellent, of course volatility has spiked, yesterday we see a wick back below into the previous ATH at $69,000 but bought back up nicely, buyers seem to be fully in control of the market, and price action reflects this, buying demand is just far superior.

Last week on the 5th we saw one of the most volatile moves for BTC and ETH that we have seen so far during this bull cycle, this was the first day that Bitcoin really tried to break its ATH, and likely due to a mixture of hype, previous bag holders taking profits and an influx of short positions at this historic number, BTC saw a huge bearish wick. Price dropped at -15% on the day and even though it was a brutal day with mass liquidations how price action has recovery since has been the real story

Bitcoin at the moment is having so much success due to the demand as price climbs higher and more and more ETF’s get approved, and the lack of sellers right now are non existent, this of course is only going to escalate after the halvening happens and rewards are slashed once again. The momentum shift that has happened taking us from a bear market to a complete bull market and more importantly a new ATH has happened extremely fast, this is probably one of the fastest shifts I have seen, this of course we discussed in the previous newsletter as potentially being a front-loaded cycle where we see some type of sell-off after the halvening but right now i have mixed emotions on what could unfold.

On one hand price action looking so strong, so many bullish catalysts on the horizon, more and more institutions and investment funds are allocating parts of their books to BTC allocation is only pushing demand higher and higher, and I see no reason why this year BTC is not trading well above $100,000, likely closer to 150k. The question is for me, what happens between now and then, and what are the risk to rewards of trying to time the market by selling to early or selling to late.

Looking at ETH which is of course a lagger in this market behind BTC, I am expecting BTC buyers to at some point rotate into ETH to find more opportunity and then after that towards the end of the cycle rotate into something like Solana. ETH is still yet to break ATH’s and is currently just sitting under this resistance level at $4000, which is pretty much the last line of defense before we see ETH starting running to previous ATH’s which likely will result is us trading above $5000 for the first time. I think ETH has the best upside from here moving forward, I am targeting somewhere between $10/12k by the time this cycle comes to an end.

Similar to BTC if we didn’t see that wick down -15% on the 5th, I would now likely be wanting to take profits, expecting some type of intra-day blowoff top, this is done usually to take easy positions that are overleveraged as they attempt to long the breakout of the previous ATH, but we saw a great example of this on the 5th with a -15% wick also on ETH, this was a great retest and for now makes we think we keep trending higher slower going into the halvening.

I also wanted to discuss some AI coins that we spoke about on the previous newsletter and also what I have been charting on twitter over the past few weeks and months.

The first of those coins being PAAL, something I have been sharing since entering around 10c, I still have a position open but have began taking profits over the past few weeks we we climbed towards $1, I think a dollar is a very easy target here and honestly as this is one of the most hyped AI coins in the space right now, this can just keep climbing fast. It really is hard to gauge what type of price some of these new AI projects can hit, just wanted to say nice work to anyone who got in, some of my profits have been rotated now into GLM, another AI coin that we charted last week.

Price action and chart is way less important when looking at GLM for me, but you can see just straight away from the newsletter we wrote at the start of this month price has started to see some very strong bullish momentum. This is likely due to CT now running with the story about how GLM has a huge treasury that is based in ETH, which at the moment of writing this newsletter is worth over 1b+ USD, while their marketcap is still only 600m, of course a huge opportunity for price to catchup. GLM also leans into the DePiN narrative aswell as AI and has no unlocks for future tokens, all very bullish catalysts that hint at price performing well throughout this cycle.

I have been increasing my exposure to nearly all AI based crypto projects since the start of the year, one of the few sectors that will see exponential growth throughout this cycle and beyond and I have just been blindly buying the sector without too much due diligence. Generally a sector I believe will be a great performing moving forward.

As well as AI, gaming is of course something else I am super bullish on, as most of the people reading this newsletter will already know, RON has been a position I have been buying up since wow, about a year now. Average entry price was around 50c, and just today we see RON break into a new all-time, once again congratulations to everyone who has bought a position since it has been in these newsletters. This week for the first time since actually buying my original position I have started to take profits ever so slowly, reducing my position just makes sense, I have accumulated a significant percentage from just farming rewards so it after close to a 10x, for me now it is a good opportunity to roll some profits into other projects and reduce size.

I just want to finish this newsletter off by taking a look at SOL/USD as this pair has been one of the strongest over the past few days, likely catching up after watching BTC and then ETH run since the start of the year, we saw Solana make the majority of its gains first in the latter part of 2024, and now after taking a breather is once again moving higher, now at prices which have not been broken since we last ran to ATH.

As I mentioned previously in this newsletter, the cycles usually flow through the main three coins, BTC into ETH and then finally into SOL, as users are attracted to more risk as the cycle continues, ETH and SOL still have some ground to make up before hitting new ATH’s but I think that once Solana does break that all important number which sits at $260, i think solana is going to move way higher, im targeting $700.

In conclusion the market looks strong very strong, we are around 35 days or so away from the Bitcoin Halvening and BTC is seriously seeing a major supply crisis as demand just sky rockets while supply just continues to decrease as more and more take their coins off-chain and ETF’s continue to get approved and onboard more users in the US, it really does seem as though crypto is finally break that adoption barrier that has been preventing investors from getting access, I have a feeling that this could potentially be the last major cycle we see for significant gains and for that reason I think prices could get a lot higher than what even I think could be bullish targets.

I think right now its pretty hard to balance emotions on when to sell or when to add to positions, I feel like seeing the majority of gains before the halvening still leads me to think that we might see a significant drop is price at some point post halvening but even when we dropped 15% just a week ago this was bought up some aggressively by buyers that it makes me question what is really going to happen this bull run. Right now im just trying to hold positions for as long as possible and still just rotating profits into ETH instead of USDT.