Market update 29/02/24

Market Report #228

Hi everyone and welcome back to another newsletter, and wow what a crazy month is has been, not only in my personal life have things been hectic but I cannot even begin to explain the amount of work I have been putting into the crypto space behind the scenes, it feels as though every time I think I need to go outside and touch grass, something new is happening or some other coin is pumping even harder.

I love writing these newsletter because it gives me a timeline and source of conviction going through different cycles, majority of the people reading this have been subscribed for around 1/2 years, and reading back 7/8 months ago when we was discussing how we should be positioning our portfolio going into the new year, being fully allocated and understanding that the first half of 2024 would be the initial start of the bullrun as we led up the BTC halvening. It brings my great pleasure knowing that most people are now seeing their portfolios explode in value, altcoins performing super well and all those days buying altcoins is finally paying off 10 fold.

Of course the market looks absolute amazing right now, and below we will take a look at a few positions I currently have opened and some charts to go along with those positions and my general thoughts on the price action. The two interesting things that stand out to me right now is that, while looking ‘google trends’ still no retail influx and nobody is really searching for “bitcoin” or “crypto” online, unlike what we saw in 2021, where retail was the reason the market was exploding. Now we are rising based of institutional influx of capital, likely the first stage of this bullrun.

The second interesting idea I want to point out before moving onto price action, is the idea that this bullrun could technically be a frontloaded run, meaning that we see a HUGE runup in price action PRE halvening, unlike what we usually see which is slower PA before and explosive PA after, this could technically be the opposite and the halvening could end up not spiking price as much as people think, maybe causing some hype of general pullback for the crypto market, before heading higher from summer until the end of the year or Q1 2025. Just something to think about.

Bitcoin first, look how good that chart looks, since the start of the year BTC has been exploding in terms of PA and is on track to close today for the highest monthly dollar gain in the history of BTC. Looking at the chart above, you can see that the past 3 weeks have been very aggressive, price has moved moved within only a few thousands dollars of the previous all time high and we have seen the first retest of this significant resistance block marked above.

Defiantly would not expect to get passed this level easily, breaking this obviously takes us to new all time highs, it seems the most logical response to get a pullback from this level, something like $48k makes sense, price is over-extended and I would be expecting a pullback more than price just breaking 64k and heading to ATH’s, just remember that if BTC does correct 15/20%, this will have a larger affect on altcoins.

ETH/USD looking similar to Bitcoin but maybe a little more natural in the progress to the upside, Ethereum already had a lot of catching up to do to stay in parity with the rest of the market, breaking 3k was a great momentum shift and ETH added nearly $500 in price in just the past few days alone. Price needs to get above 3.4k and hold steadily if we want to expect further upside, this being a key resistance level, I think if this does not happen then we could expect a pullback to around 2.8/2.9k which seems pretty fair. Important to point out that if a 10/15% pullback is scary then you are defo overleveraged in terms of positioning. This said, target is ETH to $10,000 this cycle.

Solana I currently do not have a active position, but would love to get a entry around $80/85 when the time comes, hopefully ETH or BTC does see a larger sized correction in the coming few weeks and a opportunity presents itself for this type of entry, anything below $100 is likely good for this cycle as a entry and honestly i really regret selling my bags I had from $18. SOL right now looks generally way less volatile compared to ETH and BTC, and it could technically fall a bit further due to lack of upside the past few weeks and running more in the second half of 2023.

Ronin a huge play for those who have been reading this newsletter over the past year and built a position along side me, this is still one of my largest altcoin positions but I have de-risked my position and taken profits between $2.8/$3.1 and even now is a fine level to take profits considering our entries where sub $1. I think RON/USD pairing does extremely well this cycle and I have a target of $10/12 pretty easily, I think worry that when BTC and ETH does (if) correct then ronin likely can find entry levels around $1.8, as price action is still relatively soft as we have less historic levels. Still one of my largest positions, still farming a 6 figure position on Ronin/Staking.

PAAL one of the most recent positions, believed I spoke about this a few newsletters back for a play into the AI space, think this is going to be a huge gainer this year, and already has been something like 4x from my original entry. I think this project hits $1 pretty easily and expecting to see some major exchange listings in the near future, one of the leading AI projects in the space right now that is building a pretty substantial ecosystem. I think AI is and already has been the best performing subsector in the crypto ecosystem for this cycle, this is not going to change anytime soon.

This leads me into a new larger altcoin position I have just began building up just over the past 2/3 days, this is $GLM or Golem, funny story this was actually one of the first altcoins I was ever bullish on in the crypto space, back in 2017/2018. Now they of course are perfectly aligned to see substantial growth within the AI and De-Pin sector and is likely one of the most undervalued projects. The interesting thing that makes GLM so interesting if their treasury balance, while their marketcap might just sit around $370m, a already pretty small MC for such a strong tech savy project in the AI space, they actually have a treasury valued at 800m dollars, meaning their internal holdings are double that of their marketcap. Im a buyer here, and already price is below my initial entry, I will be adding to this position heavily during march.

Just to summarize my thoughts right now, the market is hot, we are here at the bullrun after a long awaited bear market. AI, Gaming and De-pin sectors are going to be core sectors that see growth this cycle. Institutional investors are here and buying pretty heavily, while general retail / public audience is still not seeing the crypto hype if we are taking google trends data into account. ETH, BTC and all altcoins will see new all-time highs over the next 12 months, but we might see 2 larger corrections along the way so please do please careful with leverage. This potentially could be a front loaded cycle that sees substantial growth pre-halving before pulling back and cooling off before another run in a few months. New position for me in $GLM.

---

I am also thinking about starting back up my youtube channel to provide one free video or livestream per week along with one free newsletter, I would love to get some feedback on if video based content is something you would be interested in, please do leave a comment below with any suggestions or thoughts on that.

Thank you for reading this Newsletter; if you did enjoy it and would like to stay up to date with any of my technical analysis moving forward, please do subscribe. I am currently trying to write something on the markets at least once a week.