Market update 29/11/23
Market Report #224
Hi everyone, and welcome back to another newsletter, this one is going to be charted and written on mobile while I am currently travelling, but I really wanted to get my thoughts out on the crypto market right now, as price action has sustained pretty significant growth since the last newsletter, so wanted to give clear position updates.
First off, BTC, sustained a strong weekly close above 35k again and has pretty much flipped all previous levels of resistance that we have seen throughout this 2022/23 bear market, those levels of course being 28, 30 and 34k. These are now the levels to be watching for any type of retrace in price action, low 30’s is likely going to be a strong level of support as we going into the new year, no doubt the lows of the cycle are well and truly in, which is something we have been saying for a long time now, but it may now also be much harder to get any entries below 28k moving forward, if we can get a wick that would be a blessing to add to longterm positions for myself.
That said, seems as though the chart above is ready for a push upwards to 40k
Seems as though going into the new year and 2024, nearly all dips are for buying, and if we can see double digit pullbacks, which is defiantly highly likely, considering where support currently stands, this is likely a great place to start bidding. Of course this is only relevant if 1) you have sold your positions from the lows, or 2) you missed buys and now are waiting on the sidelines to accumulate a position. I think generally those who have just been averaging back into the market through 2022 and 2023 likely have better entries than what we will get moving forward.
ETH/USD pairing has been pretty interesting over the last 2 months and coming out of summer, usually one of the strongest pairings that follows BTC on a laggard affect, has actually been less dominant during this strong rally. As we will discuss later in this newsletter, SOL/USD has been the much stronger pair, even stronger than BTC and honestly I think that has created some type of temporary narrative shift that SOL has more upside than ETH, and especially for traders who are looking for quick volume and liquidity, ETH seems to be far behind the rest of the market right now.
As you can see from looking at the chart above, while other charts have been making new bear market highs, and breaking out of this downtrend completely over the past few weeks, ETH at the very best has only been able to match the previous high of last summer, and still is well behind the rest of the market in terms of Q3 & Q4 growth.
Seeing on twitter some talks about how ETH might not be able to make a significant run next cycle, maybe just having less than average returns compared to other competing chains, that have already started to move in a positive direction with much higher returns. Look, I think personally that ETH will just do completely fine next cycle, and ETH is and highly likely will always be the web of things for crypto, can’t see that changing anytime soon. Sure price action is a little behind the rest right now, but trust me, when it finally does decided to catchup, it will be a quick jump up to high 2’s or low 3’s and then $1950 or $1970 will look much more appetizing, for this reason as many of you know, I have moved my SOL position heavily into ETH.
Solana has obviously been the coin to hold since the end of summer, we had a position open from $18, which we was mentioning in this newsletter would be the perfect place to start dollar cost averaging and building a position for the next cycle.
Looking at the chart above, and SOL being up around 300% or more from the bottom of this summer, $62 is now the definitive resistance level that is preventing price action from moving higher, will this level break? I am not sure, PA has obviously been extremely strong the past months and betting against SOL moving higher is likely asking to get hurt, but I have personally moved my spot into ETH.
I am currently waiting to buyback my SOL position, which the first level of major support that I would like to see retested is going to be that $42 level, which you can see marked on the chart above, this seems like a definite place that PA will retest at some point in the near future, and will be crucial for bulls to hold. I still think we have a chance to see price action go back into the 30’s and the low 30’s is where I would start to fill a position heavily, until then not shorting and waiting for some clarity.
RON/USDT is something we have been talking about on this newsletter for a while not, pretty much for the past 6 months, as you might know this is currently my largest altcoin position and I have been staking for the majority of 2023, which makes sense when rewards are between 16/18% APY and the tokens has been pretty range bound.
A few newsletter’s ago I mentioned how this region at 40c was a really good buying opportunity if anyone wants to be in the project longterm, and since then price is up already 160% just in the past 4 weeks alone, had a few people comment saying that bought a bag and so congratulations to anyone who looked into the project. I still think this is one of the best projects going into next cycle, I think between $5/10 is where price will top out next cycle if not higher.
Looking at the chart above, the amount of volume flowing into RON is defiantly seeing substantial growth and we are also seeing the same with on-chain activity, their new game released called Pixels, and already they have around 100k daily active users which is pretty insane for a crypto based game, once they launched their VIP members package for 40 RON a month the price of RON started to climb very fast. I believe Ronin is the gaming chain of next cycle, and is my singular bet on that niche.
Generally speaking I think the market is looking strong, I believe that going into 2024, the market will continue to get hotter and hotter, and while we might see some pullbacks over the coming months, anything substantial will get bought up pretty easily, sellers market is completly behind us now and buying seems to be the only logical play moving forward. In Q2 we will see another historic BTC having that is obviously something that will play a role is transitioning us into a bull market, and likely before that we will also see the approval of multiple spot ETF for BTC that will be the start of the next bull run, in my own opinion.
I think later 2024 and majority of 2025 will be bull seasons for crypto, so we have a few more months of buying and accumulating longterm positions, to position ourselves for what is to come, i am still focusing heavily on research and trying to find key sectors that could run heavily next cycle, those right now for me are gaming, DeFi specifically DEX’s and competitive L1’s. Things are looking brighter for crypto moving forward, most of you who read this newsletter have likely had a rough past 2 years during this bear market and myself included, but things are looking much better and volume is starting to flow back into the market, with big events on the horizon.
Thank you for reading this Newsletter; if you did enjoy it and would like to stay up to date with any of my technical analysis moving forward, please do subscribe. I am currently trying to write something on the markets at least once a week.