Outlook on 2026 Markets
Market Report #232
Hello…
Firstly thanks for still reading, if you are reading this I really do appreciate the time you take out of your day to read this, I hope these newsletters are somewhat helpful or at least give a raw and fresh mind into how I think the markets are looking.
Its been a while since I have written a newsletter, but I hope everyone reading this had a good 2025 and a happy news years to everyone. Moving forward I am going to try and be as consistent as possible this year with sharing my thoughts and opinions on the market, that being crypto, some stocks and just general overall sentiment that could affect most traded markets around the world. These likely be followed with youtube videos in the near future but today, lets just jump into my thoughts for 2026.
This year is a big one, we are at a pretty significant crossroads in majority of major markets right now, you have the S&P500 at historic levels at 6920 and looking to break above 7000 for the first time ever, gold and silver are both just blasting through ATH’s and last year we saw Bitcoin hit new ATH’s before retracing. The AI & robotics sector are on fire right now and we have to really think about what 2026 could look like as we progress through the year, what’s the chance that markets contiue to perform into fresh ATH’s and how much more are they going to gain, and how and when to expect some sort of sell-off as markets stabilize.
I feel like 2026 could be a very defining year in the majority of most portfolios, that being either majorly positive or majorly negative depending on investor.
Let’s start with crypto as the majority of people reading this are likely here for crypto based content, i think their is both good and bad news for the crypto market as a whole right now, while the market might seen pretty dead from a user perspective, price technically is still massively up compared to 18 months ago and as of the time of writing this letter still in the $90k range which is something most traders would have only have dream, so its a good place to hold as the market pulled back after the 10/10 mega crash that took place last year.
I posted on twitter yesterday but now with this fresh candle forming, it does indeed look as though bulls are still not getting enough juice to put through this resistance level around 94k that is filled with very large sell orders, this region between 94-100k is going to be a tough one to crack BUT it allows time to clarity into what BTC needs to achieve for us to get bull or bearish on price action.
This chart is super simple, you simply long a breakout and retest of $100k a level that clearly defines that bulls are back in full control of price, I see no reason to even be trading or buying in this 95-98k range, price is choppy, and you are risking a good amount only getting an extra few % on your spot position.
Until 100k is reclaimed I would just be flat on the market not long not short, just waiting patiently for a better entry, if price once against losses 90k and we slide from here I think you will find much better entries in a few weeks, and personally i have orders set to buy once price is around 75k, I think this is a really good longterm buy.
Ethereum on the other hand, didn’t have the most exciting year, sure we got to ATH’s but then quickly revert back to bearish price action but everyone knows my stance on ETH, i think its massively mispriced and if we went forward in the future 10/20 years price is probably at a level that we could not even imagine, and the infra layer for ETH will be used in nearly most sector of every day consumers lives.
While price action might be a bit frustrating and a little disappointing, at least we have a chance to get a better entry if you are a buyer in 2026 and maybe even over the next few weeks we might also get the chance at buying in the low 2000’s this would be an ideal scenario in my opinion, if BTC does start to slide we should get some very very good entries on ETH and some other blue chip crypto projects. (some of these we will chart in the next newsletter)
Also I will speak about this more in next weeks newsletter, I spoke about it heavily at the start of last year but GRVT launch is incoming, and so their airdrop is closer than ever, I am farming points and have moved my trading over to GRVT, so smooth trade with speed and privacy on a real DEX that has no KYC and sub-millisecond speed.
While charting crypto is all good the real outlook for the market in 2026 and what will end up pulling the crypto market up or down will 100% be the outcome of the US market, and where the S&P500 is at the end of the year. The impact of the S&P500 relies on the mag7 and now AI, the hottest and strongest weighted parts of the market where investors are pushing capital and riding the strongest tide.
For example one of my favorite stocks and something I bought early in 2025 was Alphabet (google), and just take a look at the chart:
Tech stocks have soared over the past 10 months, they outperformed all other general stocks in the market by a massive percentile, most put in new all time highs and some still seem as though they want to go higher, BUT we need to be prepared and understand that investing at levels like this does come with some very serious risks, of course the market can keep running and personally I do think the S&P500 could get to something like 7500 during 2026, but I do think the year is split into 2 defined markets:
I think new ATH’s will be printed for tech stocks, robotics, the S&P500, gold and silver at some point during 2026, and likely being in the first or second quarter of the year, its hard to imagine the market just stagnating for the next 5/6 months, if price is going to move higher and US stocks are going to break 7000, its happening in the first half of the year in my opinion.
This leads me onto the second part of the year, of course once prices are clearly in price discovery the only question then to ask is 1) how long the market will contiue to move higher, 2) what is sustaining the market growth. The second question is easier to answer in the first few months of this year and it will be the US easing inflation and just pumping more money back into the market, this is likely what keeps the market roaring for longer. The first question is a mystery and nobody can tell you the market could stay hot for another 12 months from now, BUT at some point markets do need to rebalance, tech stocks and AI will see a dip in buying and investor sentiment will cool off, so investing is going to very very tricky over the next year.
Next week we will actually cover some charts for mag7 and AI stocks as I want to share more analysis on that side of the market
In my own personal opinion this is not a year for just going for risk-on, we are at clear ATH’s for nearly all assets, these assets will cool after a certain period of time, and while im still staying markets are likely hot for the next 6 months, how much do you want to keep adding to position knowing at some point the market will cool-off and you don’t really want to have bought ATH’s. Once mag7, AI and silver/gold cool you will again see another further retrace in crypto assets as risk is once again taken off the table, so that brings me back to my question I think everyone should be asking themselves right now, what is it risk to reward for buying assets today?
I think staying in markets right now is fine, but im not a fresh buyer here, I think i personally want to be slowly and surely just taking profits off the table, building up a sizeable cash position, and sitting comfortable for the year. I would love to get the chance at buying some more corrections in crypto, stocks and metals, even if that is going into 2027, im not sure on timing but just building a larger cash buffer for 2026 seems like the most logical move to make as a investor right now.
Thank you to everyone for reading, see you next week for another newsletter, if you did enjoy this newsletter please subscribe and give it a share, I write these newsletter for free just to share my thoughts and opinions on what is happening in the market.