Yearly Market Prediction: 2024

Market Report #227

Welcome to 2024, I usually write these at the end of the year, to discuss some of my predictions for the year ahead, it feels as though timing is flying by at the moment, feels like yesterday that we was in the depth’s of the bear market, and I was writing my thoughts on the year ahead on 2023. Now another year on and things have developed heavily over the past 365 days…

Firstly I just want to mention that 2023 has been a generally very positive year for crypto, since the start of the year price action has increased at a pretty insane rate, and while it might not have felt like a bull market while we was living it, looking back the market has been on fire, we have seen major blue chips coins see significant growth, we had multiple full blown bull markets in certain sectors, such as the memecoin season we saw kicked off with pepe in Q2, TVL and on-chain TX’s have been ramping up throughout the year, and now ending in November and December we are seeing major signals that the market is much more risk-on.

Looking forward 2024 seems to be the growth year that most traders and speculators are waiting for, the signs are coming together and it is hard to see 2024 being a bad year with everything that is happening with macro markets, de-inflation on the horizon, global conflicts and politics hopefully seeing some repairs, cost of living likely ticking down all this topped off this major bullish catalysts for the crypto space.

I think nearly everyone who is reading this newsletter is aware of the BTC halvening that is on the horizon, this will happen in around 100 days and likely before that we will also have the highly speculated ETF approval from the SEC. Two news events that are obviously the upmost of importance for the success of the year, both seems to be very positive news events, and while some are speculating that the ETF could potentially be a sell the news event, all have to agree that this will be the biggest single news event in the history of BTC and while in the short-term, low timeframe speculators will sell positions into the news, likely the buying pressure will also heavily out-way. We saw a quick glimpse of what could potentially play out in 2023, when we had a leak that the ETF was approved by a false story that was tweeted by Cointelegraph half way through the year, price instantly started surging and BTC was up 10/12% in just minutes, until the tweet was removed and price dumped heavily.

I think we are on the edge of BTC actually being considered a real store of value and investment on a global scale and institutions, funds and index’s, this is going to be a huge catalyst for price, but this comes with a downside that i think most people are overlooking. For BTC to be fully adopted, and accepted it pretty much has to be heavily controlled and regulated by the global economies, we will likely leave the ‘gold rush’ era after this next cycle, and things will take a big shift in terms of regulation, most of the freedoms and access to DEX’s, DeFi, CEX’s and on-chain investments will be heavily targeted and cracked down on. For BTC to achieve its main purpose and the goal that is was born with, regulation has to come is harsh, this is on the horizon.

Solana has had a great year, and obviously we can expect the rest of the market to follow the bullish trend that is likely going to ripple through the space with the bullish catalysts we have coming up for BTC. As we have seen in November and December traders and on-chain activity shifts back into new launching projects, similar to what we saw with IDO’s in 2020 & 2021, this is usually an indicator that market participants are way more risk-on and seeking new opportunities, we saw this happen at the start of the previous cycle and I think at least for the coming few months, I am expecting this to continue and I would and will be focusing pretty heavily on getting whitelist access and trying to buy launches of new projects.

Two sectors I think will perform very well in 2024 are:

DEX’s, which stands for decentralized exchanges. why? well because we have already been seeing a heavy focus on the SEC going after centralized exchanges, this has been apparent with everything happening to Binance, post FTX, and things are only going to get worse in the near future. Exchanges are going to be super harsh with KYC rules and likely there is going to be some type of tax system in place for users of exchanges that need to report their earnings. I think this movement will push market participants towards decentralized options, DEX will likely take a larger portion of marketshare.

Gaming and Gamefi; products and platforms will have a very strong year, you likely already know but earlier in 2023 we starting acquiring a position in RON which still stands as one of my favorite projects going into next cycle. The growth that has been happening on chain for Ronin is super impressive, with the release of multiple games they have shown complete dominance of the space, becoming one of the fastest growing chains growing from 154k to 1m monthly active users, increasing over 650% in a year. Their most popular game to release in 2023 has been pixels, which is now considered the most played game in Web3, with 115k daily active players and I think this growth is just an indicator of what is coming for the entire sector during 2024.

I also think and wanted to give a special bonus shoutout to AI, i think we will see a lot of AI projects see heavy growth during 2024, those projects that have already been released such as PAAL and AIT, but I think we will see a huge focus on projects trying to tap into this new sector and build projects that combine both worlds between blockchain and AI, which is obviously a combination of two massively overspeculated industries, could potentially give birth to some real big gainers.

It has been a rough past two years, this bear market has been pretty brutal and now finally we are seeing positive on-chain activity and more risk-on movements from market participants, SOL has been a shining beacon of what can happen once coins start reversing this two year price action, and I think majority of coins will move way higher than most people expect and the market will likely keep trending in a very positive direction, personally I think any dips are for buying throughout the year and we will see lots of growth and activity in crypto.

I hope everyone has an amazing year, I hope this year is filled with health, happiness and substantial gains. Happy new year everyone, see you in a week for a completly price action update on majority of the blue chip projects.